Saturday, January 29, 2005

Iraq, take 1

Sullivan has the blog entry of the day:

HOW DO WE JUDGE SUCCESS? How do we tell if the Iraqi elections are a success? That they happen at all? Surely we should have a higher standard than that. Here are my criteria: over 50 percent turnout among the Shia and Kurds, and over 30 percent turnout for the Sunnis. No massive disruption of voting places; no theft of ballots. Fewer than 500 murdered. Any other suggestions for relevant criteria? Am I asking too much? I'm just thinking out loud. But it makes sense to have some guidelines before Sunday so we don't just fit what happens to our pre-existing hopes or rationalizations.

I think a successful election would have close to 60 percent Shia and Kurd turnout, and higher than 25 percent Sunni turnout. U can't see how there won't be some theft of ballots (after all, I'm sure there was some theft of ballots in several US states, even if they didn't impact the election results.) Realistically. This is not going to be a one-day, one-size-fits-all solution, but it's a start. I don't care what political stripe you paint yourself with; let's hope this goes well for the people of Iraq. (Post-game tomorrow.)


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