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Thursday, January 19, 2006

Vive le Quebec... Conservateur??

Is there any doubt that the returns out of Quebec on Monday night won't be absolutely fascinating? Consider this story out of Saguenay - the Liberal candidate is convinced that the Tory candidate will win the riding, knocking off the BQ incumbent.

If that should happen, it would have to be considered one of the biggest turnaround upsets in Canadian electoral history. In 2004, the Conservative candidate in Jonquiere-Alma finished 4th with 2,217 votes of 46,682 cast. That's a woeful 4.83%. The BQ had 25,193 (54.93%) the Liberal 13,355 (29.11%), and an Independent even edged out the CPC for the bronze with 2,737 (5.96%).

Its momentum versus traditional organization on the ground. Harper may yet have a choice among Quebec ministers in any potential cabinet. Did anyone out there see this tide 'a-coming?

3 Comments:

Blogger James Bow said...

Biggest surprise of the election. Easily.

I doubt this will translate into more than six seats, since Conservative support appears to be spread evenly throughout the province, and the BQ retains its commanding lead, but the popular vote for the Conservatives should be at a level they haven't seen since 1988.

5:39 PM  
Blogger The Tiger said...

Harper saw it coming.

That is all.

***

I don't know if that means that the man is delusional and for once has been confirmed in his delusions, or if it means that he actually took a very good read of the situation on the ground there. He was, after all, in charge of the Quebec file for Manning from 1994 on, and his ideas were those that led to the Clarity Act.

So...

8:08 PM  
Anonymous F. Rottles said...

Yes. It was foreseeable that at least a dozen seats in Quebec (and in the Toronto area as in the Vancouver area) would become highly competitive and ripe for the CPC. So many votes have been parked and the Harper team just needed to get their engines going again.

1:19 PM  

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