Tuesday, August 02, 2016

Post Convention Polling Sanity

Two weeks of pomp and craziness in Cleveland and Philadelphia in the books, and the early signs seem to indicate the American voters saw those events largely as I did.  The plagiarism and the "lock her up" chants and Cruz non-endorsement and extraordinary negativity of Trump's acceptance speech contrasted sharply with the more polished (and normal) state of affairs put on by the Clinton team.  Some solid speeches by Michelle and Barack, Bill was Bill (although the recounting of the love affair seemed a bit off in the circumstances), Biden was Biden (malarky!), Kaine showed himself to be the very model of a VP (anonymously bland and uncontroversial), and Hillary did what she had to do.

"I, alone, can fix it," is pure Trump, and encapsulates the threat he poses and his unfitness for office as succinctly as it gets.  So it was especially good to see the Dems use those words to hammer him.  His inability to leave the Khans alone and his eagerness to double down on all relentless attacks do seem to have helped push Hillary back to a place in the polls where the world can breathe a little easier going into the end of summer.

A little.  Next key event up on the schedule is the first of the debates in late September.  Will Trump try and back out?  Which candidates will be invited?  Format?  Who will moderate?  Such fascinating theatre to come.  Hopefully Hillary will maintain her margin until then.  But who knows?  The manic nature of this campaign defies explanation or prediction.  "Donald Trump Lashes Out At Crying Baby" is an actual headline today.  For serious.  With a full three months to go, there is surely plenty of madness left.