Tuesday, April 19, 2016

You know you need unique New York

A favourite tongue twister in the title (more here, particularly love the Dr. Seuss riff on socks) marks another in the line of Tuesday primaries.  This brief commentary comes to you from St. John's, and a lovely view from my porthole window out the Narrows.

Why brief?  Well, what is new to say?  Clinton continues to lead, with Sanders pluckily picking away at her heels, an annoyance more than anything, while Cruz amasses delegates from the rank and file while failing to chip into Trump's long held leads in the votes to come.  Expecting more of the status quo to follow tonight.  Unless Bernie pulls out a shocking win, of course.  But such a result seems impossible bar a minor miracle (which may explain why he thought his time was better spent seeking an audience with His Holiness at the Vatican rather than the hustings!)

On the Republican side, the real drama seems to lie in the states to come, Indiana and California chief among them.  Cruz has lost an opportunity to really dent Trump by failing to do any damage to his poll numbers.  It has not helped him that Kasich does not look likely to have made the necessary breakthrough to keep Trump under 50% in NY, and so lower his delegate haul.  Look forward to the speeches tonight at least to see the new framing comments for the months to come.

One new thing to watch going forward is how much sway Trump (and Cruz) may have over the convention planning, assuming no candidate has the magic number of delegates before Cleveland.  I laughed at the Donald's comments that the GOP needs to put some "showbiz" into the convention, although he is probably not wrong.  All bets are off in terms of how the Republicans deal with the mess of a contested convention, I think I'm hoping for that outcome at this point just to see how it unfolds.  And to laugh along the way, of course.  Imagine suggesting this time last year that the mid-April NY primary would matter to both parties, and that the choices left on the Republican side would be Trump or Cruz?  Another reminder that most anything is possible.  And so not to settle for the mundane or obvious... "Nothing slipshod drip drop flip flop or glip glop.  Tip me to a tip top grip top sock."  Until next week!


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