Tuesday, May 17, 2005


Other past speculation aside, here's what I find in my crystal ball this evening:

(1) Budget vote passes on Thursday.

(2) This fiery Parliament peters out uneventfully over the next few weeks, with the passage of a few more Bills, due largely to the Tory truce and everyone's (the Public included) utter exhaustion.

(3) Over the summer recess, in his last principled gesture, Stephen Harper decides to step down after much reflection (the real kind, not the Belinda kind) out of desire to ensure the Liberals' defeat in the next election.

(4) This sets up a fascinating Fall Leadership Contest in which the moderates finally complete the facelift of the CPC, in the form of a Bernard Lord candidacy [or someone equally appealing from their front benches].

(5) Election in January/February pits the reformed CPC against the Liberals in a true grudge match. NDP gets sidelined in a campaign that yields a Majority Government.

(6) Is that majority Conservative or Liberal? Ah, that's where the crystal ball gets cloudly... it will all depend on the ability of the Tories to pick the right leader. The historical precedent of 1983 [Clark stepping down/losing to Mulroney prior to 1984] seems eerily appropriate.

Well, McNair. You sure picked a good day to cross the blogosphere, though sadly it seems that Ahab's Election Analysis project will be put on ice for the forseeable future. Proper thing, perhaps, given my impending exams. Maybe we should start looking at possible darkhorse future CPC leaders instead?


Anonymous The Fog is Clearing said...

An interesting senario. The Economist suggested Bernard Lord as a possible future Tory leader about a year or so ago.

I do feel sorry for Stephen Harper, but I don't think he will be able to overcome the Liberal and MSM propoganda against him.

The situation is very frustrating and it looks as though the Liberals will wiggle free for now.
But I do believe the day will come when they get their come uppance.
It will be well worth the wait.

8:03 AM  

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