Political Study Break Musings

1. I have to admit enjoyment at watching many at progressive bloggers up in arms over the Conservative ad campaign. Thus far, Harper has been almost note perfect in delivery and tone. Did Liberals expect the Tories to NOT to focus on the reasons for the fall of the government? Why are they surprised that, in a campaign so naturally divided in two parts, the focus has shifted? And as for anticipating the negative attacks of the Liberals? Further evidence of the CPC anticipating the flow of the campaign well, as spelled out by Ottawa Ad Exec Don Masters:

"Perhaps the Conservatives are hoping to prevent the Liberals from going negative," he says, "but if the Liberals don't go negative, the Conservatives can claim that they scared them away from doing so. If the Liberals do go negative, they can say 'We told you so.'"

2. On the Grand Strategy front, Mark Steyn revisits one of his pet claims in a long and impressive WSJ piece - the shifting demographics of Europe and the greater West. Agree with him or not, but in the midst of an (at times) overly petty electoral campaign, it is sobering to keep the long view in perspective. This is a fascinating argument that few are talking about. Yet.

3. In the ongoing saga over Ignatieff's candidacy, count me firmly on the side of this Star article as opposed to the name-calling of this one. His is a cautionary tale of how to make the transition to the rough-and-tumble of politics. Hopefully it serves as a guide to future aspirants, not reason to sit out.

4. Coyne has an interesting and extremely timely response to the Martin government's education announcement this evening. I admit to being more sympathetic to ideas that do not simply dump money in various areas, favoring attempts at innovation over simple announcements of more cash. Wonder how these (and future) announcements will play out. I get the lingering sense that the tide may have already turned, despite irrepressible optimism elsewhere.

5. In my prediction at the campaign's outset, I attempted a cursory run through the ridings and favored the NDP, CPC, and Bloc over the Liberals in the marginal races to arrive at the numbers. At this point, only Layton has failed to consolidate pre-campaign inroads. They are the real hidden story in this election. I simply cannot see how the 43 seats James Bow now predicts is possible, when even the 30 I picked initially is likely a stretch. As the second half of the magic Liberal or CPC majority, they should be able to orchestrate more coverage.

On that note, Harper could stand to benefit enormously from a strong rise in the NDP vote. Can the CPC campaign team figure out how to help disaffected Liberals [who have ruled out the Tories] find Layton? That's the last step toward a sure CPC minority. How creative might they get on that front is a truly fascinating question.