A Most Unusual Address

Will wait to hear from Paul Martin himself before speculating broadly on the implications of his unusual address to the country. But some quick talking points on what the sides should be thinking:

(1) For the Libs: Cherniak's right, it is the speech of Martin's political life. However, if he simply sticks to the tired message we've heard ad nauseum up to now (it was I who ordered the inquiry, I am actually the angriest guy around, etc...) it is going to be difficult to overcome the sense that he is really just acting out of desperation to stay on as Prime Minister. He'll come across sounding like a kid bragging about cleaning up the mess he made in the first place.

So what's the ace? The old "Bait-and-Switch" - ye oldest trick in the playbook. Martin makes the straight-out plea to Canadians to wait for Gomery, but specifically not because he fears electoral reprecussions over sponsorship now or later (bait). I am NOT addressing you tonight to make excuses for any of the allegations being reported at the Inquiry. Far from it. In fact, I am more than ready to accept responsibility. This party is prepared, eager, willing to accept our share of responsibility. We are not going anywhere. You, the voters, will get your chance to render your verdict soon. BUT (switch) lots of Parliamentary business currently hangs in the balance. Wouldn't it be terrible to lose the whole year's progress? The negotiated Atlantic Accord. Health Deal. Cities Deal. Budget tax cuts. Same-sex marriage legislation. The Kyoto plan. The Foreign Policy Review. And so on. Less than a year ago, you elected members from all major political parties to work together to get things done. And we have been working, with a keen eye to the reforms necessary to make Canadians trust in government again, to ensure such abuses can never occur again. Why throw away the legislative progress made thus far for the sake of a few months?

Never mind the fact that there is no real danger of losing this legislation in the long run. Martin's last best hope is to actually overemphasize the tragedy of losing the legislation on the books, without sounding too self-congratulatory about specifically Liberal accomplishments. That is what buys the time without looking desperate. People worried that I meant to announce tonight that I mean to prorogue Parliament, he might say, when in actual fact I want the opposite. I want it to work. Frame the narrative so that the opposition's forcing an early election looks irrational, greedy, opportunistic, and counterproductive.

And, of course, leave the subtle point unsaid throughout - what would going to the polls this summer really accomplish? Wouldn't an early election is likely to leave us right back into this mess anyway, no further along? The only people who would benefit fully would be the Bloc. Actually, waiting until the fall would be both fair and productive. Wouldn't it?


(2) For the opposition: Hammer home the point of this Toronto Star article: this is a highly unusual address. Where's the emergency? Martin is just desperate to hang onto a job he seems incompetent to perform. Listen to Catherine Murray, a communications professor at Simon Fraser University:

"If it's meant as an attempt to save the Martin government from defeat and then from defeat at the polls, then it's inappropriate," she said. "If it's a partisan political announcement, then the party should be paying."

Use this line to tee up your home-run, something like "...here they go again, using the pulpit of the Canadian government and PMO to further the ambitions of the Liberal Party of Canada and its political cronies." Regardless of Martin's rhetoric and delivery, how can he avoid the attacks that he is just trying to buy time in hope that the sense of outrage fades away? Because make no mistake, that is all this is. He wants to get on with House business, but he never shows up in the House. He wants the government to function, but he won't accept that he doesn't have the majority of his rival predecessor. After 12 years, haven't they had long enough to figure it out. You don't become a bold and visionary leader overnight. Martin's 15 minutes are, finally, up. It is time, as the campaign saying goes, for the long awaited change.