Kinsella's "Predictions"

Kinsella's latest musing (November 14th) sees him bragging about an end of year prediction, namely: "1.The Martin government will fall in 2005."

Otherwise, no mention of other predictions, or even a link to his archives for December 2004 for further context. It's a slow Monday morning following the long weekend, so why not look closer? A quick Google search revealed the full text of his predictions, with odds and commentary provided. A few thoughts on our budding Nostradamus's accuracy.

1. The Martin government will fall in 2005, likely over missile “defence.”

Interesting how the last four words were conveniently omitted from today's braggadocio.

2. It is not a given that an election will immediately take place. Adrienne Clarkson, who the Martinites have done their level best to defame and demean, may ask Stephen Harper if he has the confidence of the House. He just might, too (cf. his Belgian love letter to Gilles Duceppe).

This certainly doesn't sound like a prediction from someone anticipating the fall of the government in the dying months of the year. Safe to say this one's a bust, although in the face of the recent "compromise", it is surprising that the opposition parties never really looked into it. To make Parliament work without the Liberals actually running the show?

3. If an election results, the Liberals will not – repeat not – win a majority. If Ralph Klein and Tory caucus kooks (cf. White, Gallant, ad nauseum) can be persuaded to shut up, Stephen Harper will be Prime Minister in a minority Parliament. He will do a surprisingly okay job.

Certainly a probable result on the current evidence, though only Cherniak seems to be predicting against it. The Harper minority remains the distinctly underdog position, for now.

4. Paul Martin will count himself lucky to win 70 per cent support for his leadership at the March Liberal convention. If he gets more than that, it means (a) a rigged convention and/or (b) that every real Liberal stayed away due to (a).

Actual result: 88% at a convention attended by Kinsella himself.

7. Approaching mid-term, thinking legacy, George W. Bush will start to look and sound more moderate. All of us will be surprised, including those of us who have predicted it.

While no one could have predicted Katrina enhancing the fall to historic popularity lows, the President spent all his political capital in a losing fight to privatize social security, came out against torture, backtracked on Miers, and remains defiant on the War. That be not moderation.

All in all, not the type of predictions I would be especially proud to have made. But there you go.